Prediction markets are gaining more popularity, but the French National Gaming Authority (ANJ) has issued a warning about the rapid growth of these online platforms. In a statement, the regulator reminded consumers that such portals are illegal and can carry significant risks.
According to the regulator, the success of these platforms has accelerated markedly since the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Their surge in popularity has raised concerns about addiction, consumer protection, and potential market manipulation.
A Booming Market Since 2024
These prediction markets mimic online casinos and allow users to wager on the outcome of real-life events. They became increasingly popular during the 2024 U.S. presidential elections, when Polymarket handled around $3.6 billion in trading volume on its election-related contracts and guessed that Donald Trump would become the next president.
Between January and October 2025, cumulative trading volumes across the main global platforms exceeded $27.9 billion, with weekly peaks surpassing $2.3 billion in October. Estimated cumulative revenues are said to approach $2 billion, largely derived from transaction fees.
For the whole of 2025, the market was primarily dominated by two operators: Polymarket and Kalshi.
Platforms Considered Not Legal in France
The ANJ recalls that prediction market platforms are not authorised in France and are considered illegal gambling websites.
As early as November 2024, the regulator determined that the services offered by Polymarket were likely to constitute unauthorised gambling. It subsequently contacted the Panama-based publisher, which implemented geoblocking measures to prevent users located in France from placing bets (except via VPN). Kalshi has implemented similar restrictions.
The ANJ stresses that these measures were introduced to protect French consumers from exposure to unregulated gambling offers.
A Hybrid Model Between Gambling and Financial Products
Each prediction market is built around a clearly defined event with a possible outcome of Yes and No. They have a predetermined resolution source and a specified closing date. Prices fluctuate based on the supply and demand and are often interpreted as the aggregated probability of an event occurring.
Since users may buy and resell positions before the outcome is determined, these markets resemble betting platforms and specialised financial instruments. According to ANJ, the hybrid nature partly explains the varied regulatory approaches observed internationally.
Heightened Addiction Risks
The regulator has also emphasised that prediction markets display addictive characteristics comparable to those found in online gambling, but without the consumer protection safeguards imposed on licensed operators.
Many of these platforms operate 24 hours a day. What’s more worrying is that there are no player protections, such as betting caps, time limits, or effective age verification. The gambling regulator warns that their marketing strategy often presents them as “investment” tools, which creates an illusion of skill and control.
These methods may lead users to believe that their knowledge of current affairs gives them an advantage, which further points to repeated participation and the risk of addiction.
Media coverage of substantial wins and comparisons with crypto trading may further support the notion of easy profits, which easily attracts new audiences who are usually less inclined to engage in traditional gambling.
Risks of Manipulation
Beyond addiction concerns, the ANJ also highlights risks of market or opinion manipulation.
When participants are able to wager on an event while potentially influencing its outcome, financial incentives may arise to provoke or accelerate negative developments. Such dynamics could theoretically apply to areas ranging from sports competitions to geopolitical events.
Growing International Scrutiny
Prediction markets are attracting increasing attention from regulators worldwide. Several European countries, including Germany, Belgium, Romania, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Poland, Greece, Cyprus, Ukraine, and Portugal, have blocked access to Polymarket on the grounds that it operates without the necessary gambling license.
In the meantime, in the U.S., the regulatory landscape remains mixed. In November 2025, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission authorised Polymarket to offer services to U.S. residents after previous limitations.
At the same time, the Nevada Gaming Control Board has initiated legal proceedings, arguing that the platform’s activities constitute illegal gambling under state law.
Outside Europe, Australian authorities blacklisted Polymarket in August 2025, and Colombian regulators have requested internet service providers to block access to the platform.
New Zealand has also labelled them as illegal. The Department of Internal Affairs, Gambling Director Vicki Scott, marked the platforms as illegal gambling sites.
“We consider platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket to be gambling under New Zealand law. Since they aren’t authorised operators, they are prohibited from offering their gambling products to people in this country.”
A Call for Vigilance
Considering the scale of transactions involved and the absence of protective measures comparable to those required in the regulated gambling sector, the French gaming watchdog has urged local users to be cautious if interacting with these platforms.
Meanwhile, as prediction markets continue to expand globally, the French regulator reiterates that these platforms remain unauthorised in France and pose significant risks to consumers.
